Tier 5: We own our draft pick, right?
Golden State's #2 pick Stephon Castle is part of a new generation finding their way on rebuilding teams. TOR's Shaedon Sharpe, PHX's Toumi Camara, and LAC's Vince Williams are all giving their fanbases hope of a brighter future.
29. Toronto Raptors
Unfortunately, it may take another year or two before the Raptors begin to play winning basketball again. The main reason this season will be their lackluster frontcourt. There is simply no one up front for Toronto aside from the admittedly crafty Snail Magic. On the positive side, a backcourt compoised of Hamidou Diallo, Ayo Dosunmu, newcomer Skylar Mays and #4 draft pick Shaedon Sharpes will be fun to watch. But the fact of the matter is that elite big men – of which there are plenty in the CSL – will have a field day every time they play the Raptors.
Prediction: 20-62
28. Phoenix Suns
Coming out of last season, it should’ve been evident that the Suns needed to fix their offense in a post-Smailagic world. Unfortunately, the Suns did not address their offensive woes in the offseason – #6 pick Camara was a defensive selection and they had no notable free agent signings (I would’ve loved to see them offer Ky Bowman a big contract). Cade, Cole Anthony, Jaylen Hoard, and Chet Holmgren are all decent, but collectively they are too inefficient and ineffective to get Phoenix out of the bottom. Expect the Suns to use their $11M cap space and shop the trade market for some offensive assistance. If they fall asleep at the wheel, they’ll risk losing an infuriated Cade to Free Agency, and with it, the support of the fanbase.
Prediction 21-61
27. Golden State Warriors
It was a season to forget in Golden State; 19 total wins just four seasons after a finals run. It’s all about the future now, with #2 pick Stephon Castle pegged to lead the Warriors through this rebuild. Veterans Dedric Lawson and Lonzo Ball are likely to be shopped aggressively as the Warriors will likely look to add draft capital and young talent. Scottie Barnes, Kris Wilkes, and Tyrell Terry are a decent start. The Warriors aren’t in any rush to get on court results, so don’t expect much out of this bunch.
Prediction: 22-60
26. Los Angeles Clippers
It’s been a long rebuild for the Clippers. But there are signs of progress. The pairing of Sochan and J-Will is perfect, as Sochan’s unreal talent matches up perfectly with Williams’s efficiency. Unfortunately, Topic is still a year away endurance-wise and #4 pick Vince Williams also may need some time. Aside from the quality signing of Jalen Duran, the Clippers just don’t have enough else going on to make some noise this season. But the future is bright in LA (if they can keep everybody happy).
Prediction: 23-59
Tier 4: We’re not that bad but what are we doing here?
Teams in this tier have reasons to be hopeful and star power to watch, but many are missing the depth of right fit to make some noise.
25. Washington Wizards
The Wizards made a splash this offseason by landing premier Center Bruno Fernando from Memphis. Fernando will pair with Malik Monk to make for one of the more interesting duos around. However, there’s not a ton else to like about the Wizards. If role players like Usman Garuba and Austin Reaves step up, they should at least be able to lean on Monk-Fernando to get them in the ballpark of 30 wins. Knowing the Wizards, they’ll probably trade away half this team by the trade deadline anyway.
Prediction: 28-54
24. Boston Celtics
Well, it’s finally officially a rebuild in Boston. Miles Bridges and Skal Labissiere are gone, but somehow DeAaron Fox remains. It would be truly a waste for Fox to finish the season in Boston. Both Fox and the Celtics should have every incentive to get some value for their elite PG and his juicy expiring contract. If he stays, the Celtics win a meaningless 30-35 games. If he goes, the Celtics can pursue a top pick and really kick off a rebuild with some fresh faces.
Outside of Fox, it’s a lot of mediocrity in Boston. Singh, Sarr, and Porter are all OK role players on big contracts. Rookie Dillon Jones is interesting and Max Christie could be a breakout star if given the green light, so there’s still hope in New England.
Prediction: 29-53
23. Orlando Magic
The good news for the Magic is that Wemby looks like the real deal (20 ppg and 10 rpg last season feels like only the tip of the iceberg). But Orlando hasn’t been able to right this ship in decades and it’s hard to see them doing so this year. Sure, Giddey can rack up assists and Kessler can rack up blocks, but there’s a lack of wing talent and overall depth that make the Magic feel like the empty stat champions. I’d love to be proven wrong and have Orlando finally earn their spot among the big boys of the East.
Prediction: 31-51
22. Minnesota Timberwolves
It feels like yesterday that the Timberwolves were sitting atop the CSL. But this is no longer that Ben Simmons, Anfernee Simons-led team that conquered the league a few seasons ago. Last season’s 34 wins feel a bit more representative for a lineup composed of Saben Lee, MJ Walker, Brandon Ingram, and Bol Bol. The bench is thin as well, with Nicolo Melli and John Butler most likely to contribute. Head Coach Morgan Landry is going to have to make the most of what’s left of Ingram if Minnesota is to make any noise this season. A breakout season from MJ Walker wouldn’t hurt either.
Prediction: 34-48
21. Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are going to live and die by the pairing of Mojave King and Alex Sarr. It’s not Shaq & Kobe, but it’s something. The problem is, #3 draft pick Kel’el Ware is talented but undeveloped, and aside from Immanuel Quickly and Anthony Black, there isn’t a lot else to like on this team. Role players like Duane Notice and Braxton Key will have to step up (or get replaced) if new HC Michael Jones and the Lakers are going to finally get out of the lottery. King alone in a contract year will be enough to win them some games.
Prediction: 35-47
Tier 3: Too good for the lottery, Too bad to contend
Future HOFers like MPJ, Davion Mitchell, Franky N, and Jarret Culver are all featured in this group. These teams have veterans (or Harper Jr in the case of OKC) and are built to contend, but might not have enough firepower to get the job done.
20. Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are running it back on autopilot this season. It’s a treadmill team (42-40 last season, 41-41 season before) with experienced veterans but not enough elite talent to contend. KAT, Ojeleye, Epps and Kostas are all good but not great players, the latter two of which are in decline.
It’s a shame to see Ntilikina’s prime be squandered in mediocrity.
Prediction: 40-42, play-in
19. Cleveland Cavaliers
Despite trading in all their chips for Michael Porter and Ben Simmons, the Cavaliers have only been to the playoffs once in the last 6 seasons. It’s been a frustrating run on the treadmill – even last year’s 46 wins wasn’t enough to get a play-in spot in the ridiculous East. Now Father Time is catching up to Cleveland as Simmons and Kuzma are 33 and MPJ is 31. The Cavs don’t own their pick next season (at least Sacramento doesn’t have it), so they’re going to have some tough choices to make if this season gets off to a slow start. EJ Onu and Romeo Langford are a good supporting cast – and both would have trade value if Cleveland decided to start a rebuild.
Despite the talent at the top of the roster, it’s just really hard seeing this team competing with the likes of Chicago, Detroit, and Milwaukee in the Central Division.
Prediction: 41-41, play-in
18. New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans have improved in each of Doc Rivers’ first three seasons. This season could be a success as the Pelicans get to enjoy a full season of JJJ/Poku/Tatum frontcourt and another year of development for Scottie Pippen Jr. However, #1 overall pick Cam Whitmore doesn’t look ready to be a major contributor and the rest of the bench is not too impressive. Such a lack of depth will likely be a limiting factor, as any injuries to that front three could spell serious trouble for NOLA.
Prediction: 41-41, play-in
17. Oklahoma City Thunder
Ron Harper Jr looks poised to enter the Zion-Luka-Jovic stratosphere of do-it-all CSL talents. Just the fact that it’s his 2nd season raises the floor of the Thunder to a playoff team this season. Add in another season of development of Markquis Nowell and the Thunder have one of the more exciting young duos in the league. A good big man would go a long way toward catapulting OKC to the higher echelons of the West.
Prediction: 42-40, 1st round
16. Utah Jazz
The strongest argument that the Jazz belong in this tier is the fact their win totals in the last 4 years have been the following: 37,40,38,37. With a treadmill run like that, you'd think GM Phil could run a marathon by now.
But there are reasons to believe that this season could be different. Head coach Andrei Kirilenko and star players Davion Mitchell and Sekou Doumbouya are back. Malik Ellison looks ready to build on his ROTY runner-up rookie season. Can the additions of Isaac Okoro and Laurynas Birutis get Utah out of purgatory? If they do, I think it’ll be in large part because of their bench depth, – including new signings Mikal Bridges, Brandon McCoy, and Michael Young – as well as returning contributors Pablo Banchero and Theo Maledon. It’s a sneakily well-assembled veteran roster in Utah.
Prediction: 43-39, 1st round
15. Memphis Grizzlies
Culver/Gates/Bowen/Mobley is as talented a starting 4 as there is in the league. But there’s a Bruno Fernando-shaped hole in the Grizzlies frontcourt that is going to hurt a lot, especially in a conference with Zion and Cockburn. The situation reminds me a lot of the 2007 NBA Pistons when Ben Wallace bolted to Chicago. The rest of the group is still talented, but one can feel like the window is starting to close on this chapter of Memphis basketball. And it’s a shame, for 3 WCF appearances and 2 Finals appearances in 4 years is as good a run as any GM could ever hope for.
The Grizzlies will still be a headache for many teams, but I’d be surprised if they were able to claw their way back to the Finals.
Prediction: 44-38, 1st round
Tier 2: The Dark Horses (or also rans)
Some teams in this group are deep and talented (Houston, Philly, San Antonio, Chicago). Others have a Nikola Jovic or a Zion Williamson. Either way, all teams here think that this could be their season. But all have giants to slay if they want to reach the mountaintop.
14. Houston Rockets
Five straight playoff seasons came to an abrupt end with last season’s disappointing 34-48 campaign. Head Coach Chauncey Billups has a bizarre roster, with talented but flawed players like Dzanan Musa, Kobe Brown, Jaxson Hayes, Tyrese Maxey, Cam Reddish, and Jordan Varnado. It’s a decent group but the challenge will be making the puzzle pieces fit. If Billups can unlock the right combination, the Rockets could recapture their old glory and surprise many teams.
Prediction: 47-35, 1st round
13. Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers have quietly won 50+ games in each of the last 5 seasons, including a 2029 championship. But challenge #1 for Philly is going to be filling a Donovan Mitchell-sized hole in the roster. Simons/Harrison is a compelling backcourt. Cam Johnson and Viny Okuo link up again as former Timberwolves (along with Simons). It’s a group that has shown they can win playoff games paired with a GM that has shown he can win in the regular season. But something just doesn’t feel quite as special about this Sixers team. Then again, perhaps a chip on their shoulder is exactly what Philly needs to recapture their 2029 magic.
Prediction: 48-34, play-in
12. Detroit Pistons
In Detroit, all eyes will be on the emerging Sophomore super class of Reed Sheppard, Zaccharie Risacher, Ausar Thompson, and Kavion Pippen. If those four are ready to take a collective leap this season, then the Pistons will be more than able to make up for the departures of Ky Bowman and Ivan Rabb. Rounding out the roster are returning contributors James Wiseman, Vit Krejci, Jordan McLaughlin, and Noah Clowney. It’s a talented team but also a young and inexperienced one. Will last season’s 50-win-but-no-playoff disappointment be the fuel needed to take Detroit to the next level?
Prediction: 49-33, 1st round
11. Charlotte Hornets
The Jovic Show finally had its breakout season last year, winning 51 games. We know what Nikola can do, but the question for the Hornets is whether players like Ja Morant and Rui Huchimara can step up. Morant only put up 13ppg last season, a far cry from his 26ppg peak in Orlando. The Hornets are going to need a lot again this year from veteran PJ Dozier as well, for whom this could be his last chance to win a ring.
Prediction: 49-33, 1st round
10. Dallas Mavericks
This season’s installment of The Zion Show may feature the best supporting cast yet. The signings of Balsa Koprivica and Ky Bowman mean that Zion should be able to take breaks during games without the world falling apart. A stable rotation of 3&D players are probably enough to keep things churning along, but it still somehow feels like there isn’t talent on this roster to match the likes of Portland and Sacramento. Then again, perhaps all you need is Zion.
Prediction: 50-32, 2nd round
9. San Antonio Spurs
Last season saw the Spurs break out of mediocrity to the tune of 55 wins and a trip to the Conference Finals– and they can thank breakout Sophomore Karlo Matkovic’s 18/8 season for that.
This season, they’re running it back with a core of Matkovic, ZDK, Alex Antetokounmpo, and Tremont Waters. That group, along with veterans Trae Young and Bam Adebayo, have the Spurs thinking about contention in the West. But getting past Sacramento might prove to be too big an ask without some additional firepower. Look for the Spurs to be buyers in the market this season.
Prediction: 51-31, 2nd round
8. Milwaukee Bucks
In typical Milwaukee fashion, there was very little turnover this offseason. Core pieces Nassir Little, Grant Williams, Daniel Gafford and Milwaukee legend Troy Brown are back and ready to compete with the help of HC Spoelstra’s dominant defensive schemes. Depth and shooting could be limiting factors, but it’s tough to rule out a team that has consistently performed at a high level for years (and whose entire core is in their prime).
Prediction: 52-30, 1st round
7. Chicago Bulls
The Bulls have a talented starting 5 that now includes newly acquired former champion Miles Bridges to play alongside scorer RJ Barrett. Strengthening their case is a decent frontcourt of Tillman/Midtgaard, solid facilitators in Moses Moody and Yago, and a good bench. None of it is elite, but it has the trappings of a classic Marcos team. If Chicago is within striking distance of a title, expect Marcos to find reinforcements in the trade market.
Prediction: 53-29 1st round
Tier 1: Creme de la Creme
Ayton is fresh off his second ring. But there are a lot of teams looking to knock the Nets off the top. Are they even the favorites heading into the season?
6. Atlanta Hawks
You know a team is good when they can lose Reggie Perry for a season and still win 50 games. The Hawks are only one season removed from a title and should put up a good fight to reclaim the crown. Isaac Okoro is gone but new arrivals Chima Moneke, Cason Wallace, and Donta Hall provide some quality depth to support the core group of Alvarado/Ball/Marshall/Perry/Goloman. If Perry picks up where he left off in 2032, there will be little reason to rule out this Hawks team in the playoffs.
Prediction: 56-26, 2nd round
5. Portland Trailblazers
Following a 58-win campaign that ended in a quick 2nd round exit and one season removed from a Finals run, the Blazers have every right to be in the conversation again this season.
GG Jackson burst onto the scene last season, taking Marques Bolden’s starting spot in the process. Okongwu, Koumadjie, Azubuike, Jackson, and Bolden make for a deep and talented frontcourt. While shooters Jessup, Fultz, and the newly paid Nembhard and Murphy make for an efficient and deep backcourt.
The Blazers are a talented team that would probably find themselves atop the West if it weren’t for that team in Northern California.
Prediction: 57-25, Western Conference Finals
4. Miami Heat
This is the most talented Heat team of the post-Ben Simmons era. Not since Simmons have the Heat had a player as dynamic as newly acquired Donovan Mitchell. Around him is a supporting cast of Haliburton, Patrick Williams, and Mark Williams and an assortment of role players that the Heat GM can always turn into 20-point scorers on any given night.
The Heat are as dangerous as they have been since their last title in 2030. But it won’t be easy to come out of the East.
Prediction: 58-24, 2nd round
3. New York Knicks
The Knicks won 60 games last season playing Luka-ball. The pieces around Luka seem to get better every season. Bagley, Porter, Hunter, Sheppard, Jackson would almost be a playoff team in its own right. This Knicks team is incredibly well constructed and poised to challenge their cross-city rivals for the Eastern Conference throne this season. That would make for a fun series. In a 21st century tale of man v. machine, it’s Andrew vs. AI.
Prediction: 60-22, Eastern Conference Finals
2. Brooklyn Nets
The defending champs know their formula. SGA, Robert Williams, Ayton. Rinse and Repeat? It’ll be hard to bet against them with a full season of active coaching and GMing. There are holes in the roster – Vezenkov and Malachi are both now 35 and Devonte Graham is 33 – but I don’t think any of that matters as long as their Big 3 is healthy.
Prediction: 60-22, Finals
1. Sacramento Kings
You thought Kofi Cockburn, Matysse Thybulle, and Dyson Daniels with the deepest bench in the league was scary? How about adding Japanese sensation Yuki Togashi to the mix? The 28-year old rookie is going to have a short but brilliant career. He already looks poised to challenge Daniels for the PG spot.
The Kings are so stacked this season that even former #1 pick Darius Garland has to be wondering how he’s going to get minutes on a nightly basis. And former #3 pick Skylar Mays departed without anyone noticing or caring.
It’s been 7 seasons since the Kings last won a title. My money’s on that streak ending very soon.
Prediction 64-18, Champions
*Disqualified: Indiana Pacers
This team shouldn’t be legal. Someone needs to take them over. 18 wins and $30M in cap space. It’s so infuriating I don’t even want to write about it.
Prediction: Pacers GM will make another podcast appearance despite actively making the league less fun for everyone by hoarding talent and wasting a franchise.
